COVID deaths understated in India

India reported another 400,000+ cases, 4000+ death day

True number surely closer to 25,000 deaths, 2-5 million infections today

Lots of ways to estimate but here's a simple one

Look at the crematoriums

During non-pandemic year 2019

About 27,000 Indians died on typical day

Crematoriums handle that level of deaths every day

Additional 4,000 deaths won't knock them off their feet

Crematoriums across the country reporting 2-4X normal volumes

So best estimate 55K to 80K people dying daily in India

If you assume baseline deaths of 25-30K

COVID likely causing additional 25K to 50K deaths daily

Not 4,000

What about infections?

Lets start with Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR)

In India, at least 1% right now


You might say -- woah, that's high

In US its about 0.6% and India has a younger population

BUT

Indian healthcare system has collapsed,

People dying for lack of oxygen

So IFR of 1% is reasonable, may even too low

Which would put daily infections at 2.5 to 5M / day

So here's the bottom line

India can't be experiencing 4K deaths a day

If it were, it would barely be blip in the background

Instead, seeing crematoriums running 24/7 and running out of firewood

Means the number of deaths from COVID at least closer to 25K, may be much more.


There's an old saying in global health

You can ignore, fail to test for, or undercount whatever disease you want

But you can't ignore the dead

In India, the dead are telling us the disease is much worse than the official statistics

And we have to listen more  

View all 26 comments Below 26 comments
India has on an average 27000 deaths per day in normal times. To understand effect of Chinesevirus compare with deaths during same months in 2019 more  
Real deaths will be known when next census takes place say this year or next year. As regard death figures it is true that many may be unreported. Many an agencies are reluctant to give correct figure as this will affect their image/accountability. more  
If we consider your conclusion of 25 K deaths per day what will be the scenario? Let us for simplicity consider 25K persons started dying from 11 April. Till today, i.e., in 30 days there would be 7.50 lakh deaths. It will be too difficuclt to hide such numbers, specifically in small towns and villages. Let us take your data of 27 K deaths per day in 138 crores population. It means 1.96 deaths per one lakh population. If a person is critical, in all probability, he will move to nearest big town/city and may die there. Let us say that this happens in a town with population of one lakh (No basis for my assumption). There are 319 such towns and cities in India. We can say that the persons expired in these towns is four times it’s normal deaths calculated based on 1.96 deaths per one lakh population. This means in top two cities viz. Mumbai & Delhi the deaths are close to one thousand and in the next two cities Banglore and Hyderabad the deaths are about 600. Assuming this to be correct, the total deaths in these 319 towns/cities is 16,085. In the rest of India the normal deaths, proportionate to the population will be 22,979 for a total of 39,064. This means about 12,000 more deaths per day than normal. This means in last 30 days there are 3,60,000 deaths. Even this number is difficult to account in the census data. more  
India is a country which has highest per capita opinion, fabrication of lies and spread of half-truths and a strong desire for all comforts without doing any sincere, honest and hard work. more  
In Practice the death rate is not more than 1 % in Country. It is nearby 0.5 - 0.6 %. Which is normal. The Peoples having Multiple diseases are going to die earlier as COVID is accelerating death process. The Tomorrows death come today . It is the Difference. Our Crematorium are very old designed & not updated as per ratio of population increase. So peoples are observing flames & ashes. The Corporators , MLA , MP , build their own empire on public money within 5 years but never paid attention where their own final journey ending place. In fact the Peoples who are blaming Govt. & writing on Social media are selfish . They just write but when the time of action comes they ran away. There is No Controlling body Of Peoples which will control their funding expenditure work. The Fund is spent by digging good road , making of Old Gutters by New one . There is No spending on Basic Infrastructure , society development work. The death is a natural process. If You live long Your Son / daughters will throw you on street. So accept YAMRAJ Invitation calmly. The Peoples who are still alive & yet not appeared into Waiting List of YAMRAK , thanks to GOD Because YAMRAJ Software can not be manipulated. more  
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