LocalCircles should do exit polls
These 6-7 politiical pollsters have misled the whole nation and look at their capabilities. What a fail. Many of them said 350-400 for the NDA and here we are BJP is not even crossing 272.
Exit poll science needs to get better. LocalCircles should do exit polls from next election. How well it captures public pulse accurately on so many issues, I am 200% sure it would have predicted 260-300 seats for NDA more
Exit poll science needs to get better. LocalCircles should do exit polls from next election. How well it captures public pulse accurately on so many issues, I am 200% sure it would have predicted 260-300 seats for NDA more
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Exit poll - a BJP poll! All media sold to BJP! https://epaper.hindustantimes.com/Home/ShareArticle?OrgId=56a3325b86 By Prashant Jha "This message is reflected in numbers. When a leader has 303 seats, asks for 370 seats, gets 240 seats, and needs 272 seats, it cannot but be seen as a message from voters that they want the leader to govern — but in a different style. It also means that voters don’t think that the leader needs a bigger mandate to deliver. The numbers dictate collaboration with leaders and formations that are outside the BJP fold. They will inevitably result in a weaker political executive — and that’s not necessarily bad, for a decade of an overwhelmingly strong executive has resulted in the weakening of all other arms of government and institutions. A mandate such as this will result in these other institutions finding a voice and Modi having to reorient his governance style to take into account these voices. This mandate, therefore, is a call for “santulan”, balance; it is a call for “sayyam”, restraint; and it is a call for respect for institutional autonomy. The final political message of this mandate is that while democracy is about contestation and debate and non-violent articulation of policy battles in the public sphere, it is also about accommodation and consultation. India’s public sphere is deeply polarised on partisan and ideological lines; social media and news television discourse, which unfortunately play a disproportionately large part in setting the everyday political agenda, is vitiated beyond repair; there is a fierce sense of zero sum competition among parties; the old norms of cross-party dialogue and cordiality even in Parliament is all but over; leaders have brought their political divides and made it personal with constant vendetta; and the executive arm uses and misuses agencies to hound rivals." more
Jun 06
Pollsters are not the problem, our electoral system is the problem. To explain: 1. Every Indian wants to vote. Hindus particularly vote as per their preferences and muslims vote according to instructions. 2. Its well known that Hindus are mobile and are also economic migrants from one state or one country to another both on temporary and permanent basis. 3. Our electoral system freezes identity to one's place of domicile. Somehow their identity is not connected and updated to their place of residence or work. And due to the elections being held in the hottest part of the year, everyone cannot travel to their home town and vote. This gap is actually exploited by many parties where they know who is available and who is not, and use their means to cast votes on behalf of the absent voter, who cannot vote anywhere. 4. If we can use our mobile and identity for vaccination, bank transactions and flight boarding, why can't we have a system to identify every voter uniquely with one authorised phone number and with a token system allow voting using mobile phone id? 5. So the mantra should be: you must vote, you only must vote. All Hindu community organisations should be funded by local arm of BJP or the government where one of their reps can regularly interact and communicate on the need to keep their identities current and correct. Incentives can be provided by offering freebies such as aged medical care, or travel incentives to connect their identity correctly. And insisting on compulsory voting will ensure that Hindus get to the ballot safely and can exercise their right correctly. This will bring up the high participation rate of Hindus so that, gaps due to their mobility is not exploited for vote bank. 6. For this Hindu communities and Hindu leaders should have a strategic vision and partnership reducing leakage of voters. more
Jun 06
Exit pools are food for discussion for gossip mongers and entertainment of T.V. audience. more
Jun 05
Exit polls run on a few assumptions: 1. Sample size is representative of all the voters in a constituency 2. People are truthful about their voting choices 3. The pollsters are unbiased and not releasing numbers based on which political party/dispensation pays more. 4. The sample sizes are large enough 5. Predictions are not made for some "safe seats" and "less-known" seats based on past statistics. 6. Credence is given to voter mix 7. Regional sensitivties are borne in mind. 8. The time at which the polls are carried out In a diverse and complex country like ours, opinion polls are difficult to manage. The major difference between poll results and actuals displays the shortcomings in a biased/theoretical systems. Half the pollsters in Delhi/Noida probably dont even understand/know the geography of our country. Most of them prefer to work remotely from Airconditioned offices and take feeds from temporary on-ground staff who are engaged for a few hours and paid a pittance. Many of these ground level people are engaged by agents/consultants who dont even meet or do a heads-up for the work involved. The so-called on ground people are usually students or out of work young people who are paid between Rs 150 to Rs 250 a day for what is called a "mystery audit". This may sometimes match outcomes if the trend is one direction. However, if people apply discretion, these results will never be right. The bias is more pronounced in teh last few years as media and a large political party want a particular rhetoric to be pursude, and less on real substance. The same kind of data play is seen with other things in the economy as well. All this reduces reliability and trust on any data/report released by people with a vested interest. more
Jun 05
